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2021 South Point 400 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Race Preview, Odds, Props and Predictions
Saturday, September 25, 2021
by LVSB Team

Playoffs Shift to Round of 12 in Las Vegas

2021 South Point 400 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Race Preview, Odds, Props and Predictions

Kyle Larson won the final race in the round of 16 last week. It was his series leading sixth win of the season and it’s given him a healthy leg up on the competition as NASCAR heads to Las Vegas for the South Point 400 and the start of the round of 12 on the way to crowing a champion.

A quick primer on how the playoffs work. All drivers on the circuit compete in each race, but only the top 16 who qualified are competing to be the NASCAR champion. The playoffs are divided into four stages. Each of the first three stages consist of three races. The winners of each race automatically advance to the next stage. Four of the top 16 have already been eliminated. Now in this second stage, 12 drivers remain eligible for the top prize. Eight drivers advance to round three. Four drivers advance to the finals and the highest finisher in that single race will be crowned the champ.

Larson (+290) is the heavy favorite this week for many reasons. He’s been dynamite on 1.5 mile tracks all season, including a win here in the spring. It was his fourth career top-three result in Vegas. He also has a 30-point lead on second place in the overall point standings. For context, less than 30 points separates second through 12th place. He’s all but assured of moving on to the final-eight just by showing up in each race. He’s also got five top-three results in his last seven races.

Kyle Busch (+600) is racing on his home track where he has one career win and eight top-five results in 20 races. That win was back in 2009. He finished third here in the winter and did pick up a win at Kansas earlier in the season, which is a similarly constructed 1.5-mile track. He’s now finished out of the top-six in six straight races.

Denny Hamlin (+800) is one of three drivers carrying these odds. He’s never won here and has just four top-five results in 19 races. On the other hand, he did finish fourth here in the winter and finished first and second in the first two races of the round of 16 before a ninth-place result last week where he still managed to lead 65 laps.

Martin Truex Jr. (+800) has two career wins here and six top-five results in 19 races. His four wins this season is second among all drivers. He has a win and a fourth-place result among his last three races and has led at some point in each of the last four races.

Joey Logano (+1000) has won a race here in each of the last two seasons. He’s finished 9-14-9 in his three other most recent attempts. It’s been a disappointing season overall with just two top-five results in his last 13 races and just one win. That came on the dirt in Bristol back in March.

Ryan Blaney (+1300) is the tenth favorite even with these relatively low odds. This is a course that usually goes to the favorites. A look at the historical leaderboard shows a who’s-who of racing in the last 20 years. Blaney has never won here, but he has four top-five results and seven top-10 results in ten career races. He has two wins and two more top-four results in his last six races.

Kurt Busch (+3300) is the defending champion in last year’s fall race. It was his only win of the season and first top-five result in 14 races. It was also the only long shot win here in almost 20 years. He has just three top-five results here in 23 career races. He’s finished top-six in three of his last six races. He’s already been eliminated from the championship race.

Read on to see our pick for this week.

NASCAR Race: South Point 400
Date: Sunday, September 26, 2021
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Track: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Track Type: Super Speedway
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Laps: 267
Last Year Winner: Kurt Busch
Last Race Winner: Kyle Larson
Last Race 2nd Place: Kevin Harvick
Points Leaders: Kyle Larson
Television: Sunday, 7:00 PM ET NBCSN
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Bet on South Point 400 at Bovada Sportsbook and get a free 50% bonus.

Here are the Odds for the Top Drivers:
South Point 400
Kyle Larson #5    +275
Kyle Busch #18    +550
Denny Hamlin #11    +750
Chase Elliott #9    +800
Martin Truex Jr. #19    +900
Kevin Harvick #4    +1000
Joey Logano #22    +1200
William Byron #24    +1200
Ryan Blaney #12    +1300
Brad Keselowski #2    +1400
Alex Bowman #48    +1800
Christopher Bell #20    +2500
Kurt Busch #1    +3000
Austin Dillon #3    +5000
Tyler Reddick #8    +5000
Matt DiBenedetto #21    +6600
Ross Chastain #42    +8000
Aric Almirola #10    +9000

Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook

The Prediction: (Kyle Larson +290)
The strong favorite for a reason. If there are few restarts, he should win handily.

Value Pick: (Ryan Blaney +1300)
Due for a win on a course he performs well on. Has been one of the best in the field down the stretch.

The Long Shot: (Kurt Busch +3300)
Can he catch lightning in a bottle for the second straight year?

Propping up:

  1. Take Martin Truex Jr. #19 +230 for Top 3 Finish
  2. Take Ryan Blaney #12 +200 for Top 5 Finish
  3. Take Kurt Busch #1 +110 for Top 10 Finish
  4. Driver H2H Match Up Take Ryan Blaney #12 -125 over Brad Keselowski #2
  5. Winning Car Number 0-9 EVEN
  6. Long Shot Bets - Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney Both To Finish In The Top 5 +650

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kevin harvick - kurt busch - kyle larson - las vegas motor speedway

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